The oscillator (blue), the fitted peak-decay curve (teal), the flat floor (amber), and the three projected-bottom scenarios for the current cycle, shaded ahead of the “now” line. Toggle log scale to see the peak decay straighten into a line.
Zoomed to 2024 onward. The oscillator topped in July 2025 and has been grinding lower for eleven months — but it has stalled well above the historical floor. This is the live question the three zones below are testing.
The model cannot tell you which of these wins — and saying so honestly is the point. Each makes a different, falsifiable prediction. As price develops, one zone will be confirmed and the others ruled out. That is your live test.
The pattern through 2018 was clean: every cycle top reached its descending envelope, every cycle bottom returned to the flat floor near 0.215. The Feb 2021 local top was the last to touch its boundary. From that point both ends began falling short — the Nov 2021 top never reached its envelope, and the 2022 bottom held ~5% above the floor, the first completed bottom not to fully return.
This tracker monitors whether the current cycle extends that shift. The peak-decay trend is well-established (R² = 0.976, stable under leave-one-out). The rising-floor idea is not yet established — it rests on a single completed departure (2022) plus a current bottom that hasn’t finished forming. If this cycle’s trough completes well above 0.215, the hypothesis gains its second data point. If it plunges to the floor, the flat-floor model holds.
Maturation Index indicator on TradingView (Daily timeframe).Update — the status bar, verdict, and scenario flags recompute instantly.This is a descriptive research tool, not a trading signal, price target, or investment recommendation. The projected bottom is a wide range spanning genuinely unresolved scenarios — the model explicitly cannot tell you which will occur, or exactly when. Timing is statistically unresolved (7 cycle intervals, not significant), so no date is implied.
The rising-floor hypothesis rests on one completed data point. One point is not a trend. Past geometric decay does not guarantee future decay; a single regime change would break it. Do not size positions on this. Anyone making financial decisions from this material does so at their own risk and should consult a licensed adviser. This is not financial or legal advice.