Bitcoin Returns Matrix

Click any month header to spotlight it; click a second to compare the two side by side. Rows and footer statistics follow the selected era and cycle phase; the in-progress month is excluded from every statistic.

Quarterly close-to-close change, plus the full calendar year. A quarter still in progress is outlined with a dashed border.

Calendar-year return vs deepest drawdown inside that year

Every green year was paid for. The first bar is the year's close-to-close return; the second is the largest peak-to-trough fall within that same year, measured on monthly highs and lows — the drawdown you had to sit through to collect it. Return bars are log-scaled so 2013's +5,372% doesn't flatten every other year into a sliver; the printed number is always the exact figure.

Average vs median monthly return

The bar is the average; the white tick is the median. Where they diverge sharply, one freak month is carrying the average — the median is the honest number.

Hit rate — share of years that month closed green

Same month, different half of the cycle

The most useful question this table can answer: does a month's reputation hold up once you know where in the four-year cycle you are? Left is the post-halving half (months 0–23 after a halving); right is the pre-halving half (months 24–47, running into the next one). Bars are median returns; the figure beside each is the hit rate and sample size. Rows where the two halves disagree most are marked with a cyan edge.

Price since each halving, indexed to 1× at the halving month

Log scale, so equal vertical distance means equal percentage move. The vertical marker is where this cycle stands right now. Cycle 1 is drawn dashed and grey — the 2012 market was tiny and illiquid, so treat it as background, not evidence.

Same point in every cycle